NBA Sports Betting Guide: How to Improve Your Predictions and Success Rate

We all know how incredible betting on sports can get, but it can be tricky, especially when you don’t know how to do it. Although it requires some luck, like when you play at any of the best online casino sites, you can do some things to give you a better chance. And the more you play, the more experience you gain.

There are different sports to bet on, and a predominant one is basketball. If you already have encountered sports betting, betting on this sport is quite easy because of the similarities with the different sports. However, you should know about the juice you must pay as an NBA bettor.

This Juice is a tax or commission you pay to a sportsbook to accept your bets on all over/under and spread bets. It is usually 10 cents (-110), and if it’s the standard one, you have to win 52.38% of your NBA bets to overcome the tax and break even. Therefore, going above that percentage means you’re making a profit. As a result, you should work on winning 53% to 55% of your plays. In that case, here are helpful tips to guide you through betting on an NBA season.

Home-Court Advantage is Overrated and Overvalued


Undoubtedly, home-court advantage exists in the NBA. However, it is usually overvalued and overrated. In most cases, oddsmakers will award 3 points to the home court, and most bettors prefer betting on home teams, leading to the sportsbooks shading lines further toward home teams. As a result, it forces casual bettors to accept overpriced numbers, creating added value to buy low on visiting teams.

According to a report from Bet Labs Sports, between 2005 and 2019, road teams have gone 8,867-8,584 ATS (against the spread) with 300+ pushes. It accounts for a 50.2% rate, but if we add the juice, you will be down to -110.14 units, meaning that $100 bets on every team on the road during this time would have lost $11,014.

That’s pretty bad. However, home teams only covered 49.2% in comparison, losing -727.32, which is almost 7x worse.

Rested Underdogs on the Road

Betting on favorites is not a bad idea because if you want to win, the practical thing to do is back the better team, right? Well, this bias has created shaded lines toward favorites, making it better to back underdogs.

In simple terms, favorites give up points, while underdogs receive points.

A record shows that since 2005, underdogs have been slightly better with straight-up bets as they’ve covered 50.2% clip compared to favorites 49.8%.

In this case, it is key to focus on visiting underdogs, especially the ones with a rest advantage. Since the NBA is very busy, you should consider the schedules before you bet.

Be On the Lookout for Huge Line Moves


One of the best ways to benefit from the home-court advantage is to back the underdogs with big line moves favoring them. It is popular to see a line go from half-point or full point in the league either way.

However, when you see a major 1.5-point line move or more, it might have been from some smart money from pro bettors. You should be vigilant with this, and you can get lucky with the move, which will give you a better return.

Know the Officiating Tendencies

Certainly, every referee wants to get every call, but we’re humans, and many factors can influence our decisions, especially when it comes to tight decisions. In addition, there are tendencies as well with different officials. Some lean more towards the home teams, while others favor the away side.

In some cases, the referee might favor the underdogs over the favorites or vice versa. Some follow the rule book and call every little foul, while some simply overlook minute offenses, going with the “let them play” attitude.

As a result, the officiating tendencies should be taken into consideration, especially when you want to bet on Totals.

Manage Your Bankroll


Discipline is one of the best ways to improve your betting tendencies and success rate in the long run. If you can manage your money and bet only when you’re almost certain to win, you will have enough wins to improve your bankroll.

In that case, you’ll be more focused on top games that you can easily analyze.

When you bet many games, you take on more risk, leading to big ups and downs. Although there is a chance to win massively, you can also lose more. The risk is greater with the more games you play.

Therefore, you should limit how you bet and understand that you’re ensuring to take it one step at a time. The goal is to have an incredible and successful betting career.